A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
