It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
